Het archief bekijken van zondag 19 september 2004
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2004 Sep 19 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 263 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 19 Sep 2004IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 18-2100Z tot 19-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 672 (N05W58), which
has been in a decay phase over the last 72 hours, produced two
notable events this period. The first was an extended C3.8 flare at
19/1148Z that erupted along a filament channel just north of the
spot cluster. The second was an M1.9 flare at 19/1712Z. This
impressive flare had associated Type II (604 km/s) and Type IV radio
sweeps; a 520 sfu Tenflare, and a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
LASCO imagery was unavailable. Region 672 is a C-type beta spot
group with under 100 millionths of white light area coverage. Region
673 (S13E22) showed little change this period and continues to
produce occasional B-class flare activity.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. There is a small chance of another M-class flare from
Region 672 before it rotates around the west limb early on 22
September. Occasional C-class flares are possible from Region 673.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 18-2100Z tot 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed was generally below
400 km/s. A greater than 10 MeV proton event followed today's M1
flare at 19/1712Z. The proton event began at 19/1925Z and was still
in progress at the time of issue. The maximum flux value so far was
35 pfu at 19/2025Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton flux enhancement
was also observed, but has not exceeded the 1 pfu event threshold.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on 20 and 21
September. A disturbance associated with today's M1 flare and CME is
expected to occur on 22 September: Active to minor storm periods are
likely. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in progress now is
expected to end by 21 September.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 20 Sep tot 22 Sep
| Klasse M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Klasse X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 19 Sep 105 Voorspeld 20 Sep-22 Sep 100/095/090 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 18 Sep 016/016 Verwacht Afr/Ap 19 Sep 005/008 Voorspeld Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/008-008/012-015/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 20 Sep tot 22 Sep
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 20% | 25% | 40% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 10% |
Laatste nieuws
maandag 18 januari 2021 - 14:03 UTC
Coronal hole faces Earth, Sunspot region 2797
maandag 11 januari 2021 - 19:21 UTC
Solar wind shock wave arrived at Earth
maandag 14 december 2020 - 19:09 UTC
C4.0 solar flare
Laatste forumberichten
- K8, serieus? 2
- Suggesties? 5
- Poollichtkans 14 mei 2019 5
- Poollichtkans 23 maart 2019 3
- KP6 van 8 oktober 1
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