Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 30 oktober 2004

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2004 Oct 30 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 304 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 Oct 2004

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 691 (N14W25) grew quickly at the end of yesterday, and emerging flux near the leader spot fueled an instability that resulted in major flares. Chronologically, Region 691 produced: a C9/Sf with type II sweep at 0049UTC, an M3/Sf with type II at 0333UTC, an M4/Sf TENFLARE with types II and IV sweep at 0618UTC, an M3/1n with type II at 0928UTC, an X1/Sf (partially obscured by clouds) TENFLARE with types II and IV sweep at 1146UTC, and most recently an M5/Sn TENFLARE with type II sweep at 1633UTC. Numerous large (i.e., 9500 sfu at 245 MHz at 1413UTC) radio bursts occurred throughout the period. A paucity of LASCO observations made it difficult to discern if associated CMEs occurred, but there seems to be an indication that at least some CME activity did occur in conjunction with the latter flares. The region seems to still retain an amount of potency making additional significant activity likely. Elsewhere, Region 687 (N12W66) and Region 693 (S16E34) each had an occasional small C-class flare as both regions seemed to decay. New Region 695 (S16E68) was numbered.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 691 is still capable of producing M and X class flares.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly active. Alfven waves in the solar wind coupled with a slow increase in the radial speed caused intervals of active conditions. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit became enhanced around 0700UTC, in response to earlier activity in Region 691. The flux has hovered near 1 pfu for the past 16 hours.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the next 36 hours. Activity is expected to increase near midday on 01 November when effects of shocks and CMEs are due, bringing active to periodic major storming over the final 36 hours of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed event level if Region 691 produces more M and X level activity. The region is in a well-connected location so this proton increase would be abrupt should it occur.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 31 Oct tot 02 Nov
Klasse M60%60%60%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton50%50%50%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       30 Oct 136
  Voorspeld   31 Oct-02 Nov  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        30 Oct 106
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 29 Oct  006/007
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  012/015
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/010-015/025-020/030
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 31 Oct tot 02 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%35%40%
Kleine stormcondities15%20%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%40%45%
Kleine stormcondities15%25%35%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%10%

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