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Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Jan 15 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 015 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 15 Jan 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 14-2100Z tot 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Large Region 720 (N13W03) produced three major flares this period, beginning with an X1/1b flare at 15/0043Z. There was no CME associated with this X-class flare. An impulsive M8 flare was observed at 15/0431Z, and at 15/0638Z, the region produced the most significant event of the period, a long duration M8 flare. This event had associated intense radio emission including a 160,000 sfu burst on 410 MHz and moderate to strong centimetric bursts including a 3000 sfu Tenflare. Type II (1300 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were also observed, and the energetic protons (>10 MeV) began to rise soon after the flare maximum. SOHO/LASCO imagery revealed a fast full halo coronal mass ejection. Region 720 is a large and magnetically complex sunspot group with white light area coverage exceeding 1600 millionths. Strong shear along an extended east-west inversion line in this region was the focal point for the major flare activity. Region 718 (S07W21) produced an M3 flare at 15/1423Z with an associated 420 sfu Tenflare and CME off the southwest limb.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 720 has potential for M and X-class flares. An isolated M-class flare is also possible from Region 718.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 14-2100Z tot 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm periods with isolated major storm levels at high latitudes. A gradual rise in the solar wind speed began early in the period, rising to a peak speed near 700 km/s, before gradually declining to near 550 km/s. The IMF Bz was predominantly southward during the first half of the period, which accounted for the most disturbed conditions. A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement began soon after today's long duration M8 flare. The protons did not exceed the 10 pfu threshold, and remain elevated. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to severe storm levels. Solar wind remains elevated at near 500 Km/s which may produce isolated active periods early on 16 January. A CME associated with today's long duration M8 flare is expected to impact the geomagnetic field late on 16 January into 17 January. Major to severe storm periods are possible during this disturbance. Barring another Earth-directed CME, the geomagnetic field will likely return to unsettled levels with isolated active periods on 18 January.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 16 Jan tot 18 Jan
Klasse M85%85%85%
Klasse X25%25%25%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       15 Jan 145
  Voorspeld   16 Jan-18 Jan  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 106
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 14 Jan  011/012
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  015/022
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  035/040-050/060-010/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 16 Jan tot 18 Jan
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities25%30%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%20%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities30%35%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities20%25%10%

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