Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 30 juli 2005


Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Jul 30 2204 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 211 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 Jul 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 792 (N12E52) produced an X1/2b event today with maximum at 0635 UTC. The event had a long decay time and was associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. The event was also associated with a fast, full halo CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed in the range of 1700-1800 km/s in the LASCO C3 field of view, and was somewhat asymmetric towards the east. Region 792 consists of a compact cluster of spots and appears to have at least two delta configurations within its complex magnetic configuration. In addition to the X-flare, Region 792 also produced a C9/1n at 0519 UTC and a C8/Sf at 1707 UTC. Another CME has been observed following the C8 event, but so far appears to be a limb event rather than a partial or full halo event.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate for the next three days (31 July - 02 August), but there is a fair chance for additional, isolated major flare activity from Region 792. In addition, there is an increasing likelihood that major flare activity from Region 792 will lead to enhanced proton flux as the group rotates closer to disk center.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data show a gradual decline in velocity, indicating the transition from a high speed stream to normal solar wind conditions; day end velocities were at 470-480 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/2300 UTC continues in progress. The maximum flux observed so far is 41 PFU at 29/1715 UTC. There was no detectable upturn in proton flux from today's major flare/CME event, although it may be contributing to the prolonging of the currently enhanced flux levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for 31 July. A glancing blow from today's full halo CME is expected early on 01 August and is expected to increase activity to predominantly active levels, with a chance for some minor storm periods. Conditions should decline to unsettled to slightly active by 02 August.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 31 Jul tot 02 Aug
Klasse M75%75%75%
Klasse X20%20%20%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       30 Jul 105
  Voorspeld   31 Jul-02 Aug  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        30 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 29 Jul  014/019
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  015/020
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  010/015-020/025-015/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 31 Jul tot 02 Aug
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities15%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%15%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities15%30%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%20%10%

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