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Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 Feb 27 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 058 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 27 Feb 2012

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There was one C-class flare, a C2/Sf at 26/2141Z from the spotless plage Region 1421 (N14E62). Region 1423 (N18E15) is the largest group on the disk but is small and unimpressive. A filament eruption was observed over the north-east limb in the SDO AIA 304 imagery at about 27/1433Z and appears to be associated with a CME seen in LASCO imagery over the north pole. Another CME was noted in LASCO at 27/2012Z over the west limb but STEREO-A EUVI images clearly show that the solar source region behind the west limb. Neither of these CMEs are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is, however, a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with an isolated period of major storm levels at high latitude. A weak shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 26/2058Z and was followed by a sudden impulse at Earth at 26/2141Z. Unsettled to active levels prevailed for the subsequent nine hours, followed by about nine hours of mostly quiet levels. However, solar wind data showed a sustained interval of moderately negative Bz from about 1000-1800Z and conditions increased to active levels from 1200-2100Z with a minor storm period during the last three hours of the interval. The timing and solar wind signatures suggest that disturbance is most likely due to passage of the CME that was initiated early on 24 February. The greater than 10 MeV protons continued to be elevated but were on the decline during the day with end-of-period values less than 1 PFU. Further analysis and comparison with ACE EPAM and ACE SIS show that these particles were likely also associated with the 24 February CME.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the first day (28 February) as effects from the current disturbance persist. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the second and third days (29 February - 01 March).
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 28 Feb tot 01 Mar
Klasse M01%01%01%
Klasse X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       27 Feb 106
  Voorspeld   28 Feb-01 Mar  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        27 Feb 128
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 26 Feb  007/006
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  013/016
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar  009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 28 Feb tot 01 Mar
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities05%01%01%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities15%10%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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