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Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 Mar 09 2210 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

**********CORRECTED COPY********** SDF Nummer 069 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 09 Mar 2012

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z

Solar activity reached high levels today. Region 1429 (N18W13) produced an M6 flare at 09/0353Z. Associated with this event was Type II (1285 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps along with a full halo CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0426Z. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 850 km/s in STEREO B COR2 imagery. Separation and slight decay within the intermediate area was observed in Region 1429, however it still remained a large Ekc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. A new spot group rotated onto the NE limb and was numbered Region 1432 (N18E69). This new region is too close to the limb to accurately determine the spot and magnetic classification, however it produced a C9 flare at 09/2025Z.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels with a chance for X-class activity from Region 1429 for the next three days (10 - 12 March).
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 08-2100Z tot 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm conditions due to continued activity from the sheath region associated with the 07 March CME. At approximately 09/0049Z, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field started to rotate towards a more magnetically connected polarity. Bz continued to be negative for several hours reaching values near -17 nT with an approximate solar wind speed over 600 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with major to severe storm periods during the periods 09/0300 - 1500Z. Solar wind remained elevated around 600 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/0510Z is ongoing. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 07/0405 is ongoing.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be under the influence of the current CME through early on day 1. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible is expected as the CME continues to wane. Early to mid-day on day 2 (11 March), the CME associated with todays M-6 flare is expected to become geoeffective. Active to severe storm periods are expected with this event. Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, are possible on day 3 (12 March) as conditions are expected to slowly dissipate.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 10 Mar tot 12 Mar
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X40%40%40%
Proton99%99%60%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       09 Mar 146
  Voorspeld   10 Mar-12 Mar  150/150/150
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 08 Mar  021/028
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  046/073
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  015/022-033/070-017/030
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 10 Mar tot 12 Mar
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%30%30%
Kleine stormcondities20%35%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%20%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%20%40%
Kleine stormcondities25%30%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%50%25%

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