Het archief bekijken van zondag 30 september 2012

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 Sep 30 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 274 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 Sep 2012

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24 hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for continued M-class activity for the next two days (01 - 02 October). A return to low levels is expected on day three (03 October), as the active region cluster, located in the northwest quadrant, rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from 27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft, indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15 nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels with minor storm periods possible on day one (01 October), as effects of todays CME continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (02 October) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on day three (03 October).
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 Oct tot 03 Oct
Klasse M10%10%01%
Klasse X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       30 Sep 136
  Voorspeld   01 Oct-03 Oct  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 29 Sep  004/004
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  009/011
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  011/015-007/008-004/005
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 Oct tot 03 Oct
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief35%10%05%
Kleine stormcondities15%05%01%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief10%15%15%
Kleine stormcondities25%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities50%20%10%

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