Het archief bekijken van zondag 30 september 2012
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 Sep 30 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 274 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 Sep 2012IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with Region 1583 (N12W88) producing an isolated M1 solar
x-ray event at 0433Z. Region 1583 had grown rapidly in the past 24
hours, however it is only hours away from rotating off the solar
disk and out of view. The remaining active regions on the disk
remained stable, producing a few low level C-class events. New
Region 1584 (S23E28) was numbered early in the period, and at the
time of this report, had only produced one low level C-class event.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for continued M-class activity for
the next two days (01 - 02 October). A return to low levels is
expected on day three (03 October), as the active region cluster,
located in the northwest quadrant, rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. The enhanced activity was due to the arrival of a CME from
27 September. At around 1100Z, measurements from the ACE spacecraft,
indicated the arrival of this CME. At 1138Z, a sudden impulse of 15
nT was measured by the Boulder magnetometer, as the CME reached
Earth. Solar wind velocities increased very little with this
initial phase of the CME, increasing from around 280 - 320 km/s. The
total IMF increased as the CME arrived, with sustained periods of
negative Bz. However, with the lower than expected solar wind
speeds, very little geomagnetic effects have been observed.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with minor storm periods
possible on day one (01 October), as effects of todays CME
continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (02
October) as CME effects wane. A return to predominantly quiet levels
is expected on day three (03 October).
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 Oct tot 03 Oct
| Klasse M | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Klasse X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 30 Sep 136 Voorspeld 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/004 Verwacht Afr/Ap 30 Sep 009/011 Voorspeld Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 011/015-007/008-004/005
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 Oct tot 03 Oct
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 50% | 20% | 10% |
Laatste nieuws
maandag 11 januari 2021 - 19:21 UTC
Solar wind shock wave arrived at Earth
maandag 14 december 2020 - 19:09 UTC
C4.0 solar flare
donderdag 10 december 2020 - 07:21 UTC
Coronal mass ejection arrival
Laatste forumberichten
- K8, serieus? 2
- Suggesties? 5
- Poollichtkans 14 mei 2019 5
- Poollichtkans 23 maart 2019 3
- KP6 van 8 oktober 1
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Ruimteweer feitjes
| Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting | 10/09/2017 | X8.2 |
| Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting | 29/11/2020 | M4.4 |
| Laatste geomagnetische storm | 22/11/2020 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Zonnevlekkenloze dagen | |
|---|---|
| Afgelopen 365 dagen | 216 dagen |
| 2021 | 12 dagen (80%) |
| Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag | 14/01/2021 |