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Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2012 Nov 24 2300 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 329 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 Nov 2012

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3/1n event observed at 24/1340Z from Region 1618 (N08W41) accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (685 km/s). No coronagraph imagery was available for analysis at the time of this report. Region 1618 showed signs of decay during the period, but retained weak beta-gamma-delta characteristics. New Region 1621 (N15E76) was numbered today and is currently a simple Hsx type with alpha magnetic characteristics. The remaining 3 regions were stable. Other than the potential CME associated with the Type II sweep noted above, no earth-directed CMEs were detected.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov) with a diminishing chance for an isolated M-flare from Region 1618 as it continues to decay.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The maximum solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was 439 km/s at 24/1137Z. Total IMF reached 17.1 nT at 23/2216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10.3 nT at 24/0621Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 789 pfu.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next three days (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov). The 21 November CME is expected to become geoeffective late on 24 or early on 25 November. Unsettled to active periods with an isolated minor storm period are expected on day 1 (25 November). Conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels on day 2 (26 November). The 23 November CME is expected to arrive on day 3 (27 November), bringing unsettled to active conditions with a slight chance for an isolated minor storm period, particularly at high latitudes.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 Nov tot 27 Nov
Klasse M30%30%30%
Klasse X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       24 Nov 118
  Voorspeld   25 Nov-27 Nov 120/115/110
  90 Day Mean        24 Nov 123

V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 23 Nov  006/006
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  013/015
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/018-008/005-013/015

VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 Nov tot 27 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities15%05%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%01%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities30%15%25%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities50%15%35%

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