Het archief bekijken van zondag 14 april 2013

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2013 Apr 14 1245 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetisme

Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Apr 2013	123	023
15 Apr 2013	121	017
16 Apr 2013	119	004

Bulletin

NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 (Catania numbers 40 and 43) are decaying, although maintaining their beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 1721 (Catania number 45) decayed also and is now classified as beta active region. No flare above the C2 level occurred during the past 24 hours. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, also from the rapidly emerging NOAA AR 1723 (no Catania number yet). An isolated M-class flare is not excluded. Due to two beta-gamma active regions in the western hemisphere, we maintain the warning condition for protons, although their flux at energies above 10 MeV continues to decrease. The Earth is currently inside the post-shock solar wind flow with speed around 500 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude around 12 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz has been almost exclusively positive after the shock arrival, so the geomagnetic conditions remained at the quiet to unsettled level. The ICME driving the shock has not arrived yet. If it arrives, a geomagnetic disturbance only up to the minor storm level (K = 5) can be expected due to low ICME speed.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 076, gebaseerd op 07 stations.

Zon indexen voor 13 Apr 2013

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Geschatte Ap	006
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	082 - Gebaseerd op 19 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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