Het archief bekijken van woensdag 17 juli 2013

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2013 Jul 17 1303 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jul 2013	114	007
18 Jul 2013	113	019
19 Jul 2013	113	012

Bulletin

Solar activity is still low, with only few C-class flare reported during last 24 hours. The Catania sunspot group 30 (NOAA AR 1791) and NOAA AR 1793 still have potential to produce C-class, and possibly M-class flares. The CACTUS software reported the CME, first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 03:48 UT on July 16, with the speed of about 400 km/s and width of 120 degrees. From the currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass is directed northward of the Sun-Earth line. The arrival of the CME at the Earth is not very probable, but we do expect arrival of the CME driven shock wave. The Earth is inside a slow solar wind with the speed of 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The arrival of the fast flow from the low-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere which reached the central meridian on July 16 is expected on July 18. The CME driven shock wave associated with the CME on July 16, might arrive at the Earth on July 20. We expect minor to major geomagnetic disturbance due to arrival of the fast flow in the following 48 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 054, gebaseerd op 13 stations.

Zon indexen voor 16 Jul 2013

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	114
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Geschatte Ap	005
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	050 - Gebaseerd op 18 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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