Het archief bekijken van zondag 13 oktober 2013

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2013 Oct 13 1220 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2013	132	007
14 Oct 2013	132	014
15 Oct 2013	134	011

Bulletin

Active conditions are foreseen for the next 48 hours, with NOAA AR 1865 being the main candidate for an isolated M class flare, as well as, but to a lesser extent, AR 1861. An M1.7 flare occurred in AR 1865 on Oct. 13, 0043 UT (peak time). It was associated with a partial halo CME as observed from SOHO by LASCO. We expect the bulk of this CME to pass south of the Earth, but a partial hit is not excluded, with a possible arrival time on Oct. 16, around mid-day, triggering unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 24 hours, and then unsettled to active conditions by the end of Oct. 14, due a small coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current interplanetary conditions are rather quiet, with weak Bz negative excursions, linked to a sector boundary crossing.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 094, gebaseerd op 05 stations.

Zon indexen voor 12 Oct 2013

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Geschatte Ap	007
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	080 - Gebaseerd op 20 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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