Het archief bekijken van vrijdag 10 januari 2014

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2014 Jan 10 1253 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jan 2014	180	004
11 Jan 2014	170	023
12 Jan 2014	160	014

Bulletin

The background flaring activity is close to C class level. The large active region NOAA AR 1944 is declining in size and complexity. NOAA AR 1946 is also past is stable in size. Both regions still have some flaring potential while rotating towards the west limb. The proton flux for >10MeV protons is still above the event threshold of 10 pfu, but declining. The probability for C flares is around 60%. M flares are also still possible with a likelihood of 40%. Chances for an X-flare are estimated at 5%. A shock in the solar wind data was observed on January 9 at 19:35 UTC. Solar wind speed, density and temperature showed an abrupt increase, as well as the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field. The solar wind speed increased from 400 to 500 km/s and then declined towards 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 17 nT, with a mainly positive Bz-component. Geomagnetic conditions were at most unsettled (K=3). Quiet to active levels (K=3 to 4) are expected due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream on January 11.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 098, gebaseerd op 15 stations.

Zon indexen voor 09 Jan 2014

Wolfgetal Catania	164
10cm zonneflux	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Geschatte Ap	009
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	086 - Gebaseerd op 13 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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