Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 25 februari 2014

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2014 Feb 25 1240 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Feb 2014	171	007
26 Feb 2014	171	017
27 Feb 2014	171	007

Bulletin

A X4.9 flare peaked Feb 25 00:49. This event occurred in NOAA AR 1990 close to the Solar East limb. This active region has lived through several solar rotations under the names AR 1967, AR1944 and AR1918. Given its current proximity to the Solar East limb, we cannot estimate well its magnetic configuration and complexity. Continued strong flaring activity would nevertheless not come as a surprise. The X4.9 flare was associated with a gradual SEP event but the (still rising) fluxes did not reach the event thresholds yet. We estimate that the 10 pfu > 10 MeV threshold will eventually be crossed in the coming days, especially if another strong event occurs, and a solar proton event is thus forecasted. The X4.9 flare was also associated with a strong & fast partial halo CME. Given the location of its source on the Solar East limb, we do not expect this CME to become geoeffective but a 'glancing blow' cannot be excluded. Another important region to follow up is the activity complex consisting of NOAA1982-Cat46 and NOAA1981-Cat45. Although this complex is shrinking in size, its magnetic complexity is increasing and major flaring is expected. Also NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50 are capable of isolated M-class flares. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 123, gebaseerd op 07 stations.

Zon indexen voor 24 Feb 2014

Wolfgetal Catania	164
10cm zonneflux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Geschatte Ap	005
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	117 - Gebaseerd op 23 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

Alle tijden in UTC

<< Keer terug naar de dagelijkse overview pagina