Het archief bekijken van donderdag 8 mei 2014

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2014 May 08 1232 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 May 2014	142	011
09 May 2014	145	011
10 May 2014	145	011

Bulletin

Catania group 36 (NOAA AR 2051), which already turned behind the west limb, produced another M1.2 flare, peaking at 16:29 UT. Activity is now shifting to the eastern hemisphere where Catania group 34 (NOAA AR 2056) produced the biggest flare of the past 24 hours, an M5.3 flare peaking at 10:07 UT. In thh hour before, X-ray flux was already increased by enhanced emission from the east limb, associated with expected returning NOAA AR 2046. Further flaring in the C level is expected over the coming days especially from the regions on the eastern hemisphere with chances for M flares. The M1.2 flare originating from NOAA AR 2051 (Catania group 36) was associated with a partial halo CME. It was detected by CACTus combined with a number of preceding CME's (and therefore incorrectly classified as full halo) but the main component is first visible in LASCO data at 16:24 UT. Another, full halo, CME, first visible in LASCO data at 3:24 UT seems to originate from the same region, with hence the bulk of the mass expelled in western direction form the Sun Earth line with projected speeds of around 800km/s as seen from STEREO A. Given the location of the source region around the limb both CME's are not expected to be geoeffective. A fast forward shock was observed in ACE solar wind data around 21:35 UT May 7. Solar wind speed jumped from about 330 km/s to about 380 km/s and total magnetic field jumped from around 5 nT to above 8nT. Density and temperature also increased. The shock was possibly a late signature of the May 3 CME. Bz was negative and increasing in magnitude after that event to almost -12nT. It has been varying between -12nT and +10nT afterwards. Wind speed was fluctuating around the 340 km/s level. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet up to the shock arrival. Afterwards, active geomagnetic conditions were observed: NOAA Kp increased to 4 for the 3-6UT interval, local K Dourbes has been at K=4 level since 7 UT. The active geomagnetic conditions are expected to first settle down although unsettled (and possibly active) conditions may accompany the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream later on.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 096, gebaseerd op 12 stations.

Zon indexen voor 07 May 2014

Wolfgetal Catania	111
10cm zonneflux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	004
Geschatte Ap	005
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	083 - Gebaseerd op 22 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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