Het archief bekijken van donderdag 15 mei 2014

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2014 May 15 1251 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 May 2014	163	009
16 May 2014	160	009
17 May 2014	158	006

Bulletin

The strongest flare in the past 24 hours was C8.3 flare peaking at 15:04 UT on May 14.The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) which currently has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. No clear signatures of CME possibly associated with this flare were observed in the coronagraph data. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also an isolated M-class flares. The flaring activity is expected, in particular, from the Catania sunspot groups 43, 46, 47 (NOAA ARs 2056, 2058 and 2060, respectively) and newly emerged NOAA AR 2063. All these active regions (with an exception of NOAA AR 2063) are currently situated in the western solar hemisphere, a major eruption in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we issue warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed is low (about 350 km/s), and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable having value of about 6 nT. The fast flow associated with the small equatorial corona hole which reached the central meridian on May 12 is expected to arrive at the Earth today, although its arrival is not very probable. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 105, gebaseerd op 16 stations.

Zon indexen voor 14 May 2014

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Geschatte Ap	005
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	114 - Gebaseerd op 22 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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