Het archief bekijken van woensdag 15 oktober 2014

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2014 Oct 15 1244 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Oct 2014	130	013
16 Oct 2014	130	007
17 Oct 2014	130	007

Bulletin

Two M flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The first, short duration, M1.1 flare was released by a backside region close to the east limb at 10 S (probably the return of M-flaring region NOAA AR 2173) and peaked at 18:37 UT on October 14. During the flare, very hot plasma (only visible in the hottest SDO passbands) was ejected into space. The second M flare corresponds to the post eruption arcade of the previous flare, started at 19:07 UT, reached its peak value of M2.2 at 21:21, and lasted until 00:19 UT on October 15. The GOES X ray flux curve has still not decreased to background levels at the time of this forecast. The M1.1 flare is associated with a halo CME first detected by LASCO C2 at 19:00 UT on October 14. The CME had an angular width of about 270 degrees, with the main bulk propagating towards the southeast at a speed of about 1700 km/s according to the CACTUS software. The associated ICME is not expected to become geo-effective since it is backsided. In the next 48 hours, M flares are probable, especially from the region near the east limb that has produced both M flares. Over the last 24 hours, solar wind speed observed by ACE was highly variable between about 370 and 580 km/s, with current values around 430 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 2 and 16 nT, with current values around 4 nT. This may be the effect of the arrival of the CME from October 10. NOAA Kp indicated a minor geomagnetic storm between 18h UT on October 14 and 3h UT on October 15. K Dourbes was above 3 from 17h till 21h UT and went to minor storm values between 20h and 21h UT. This is the result of the increased solar wind speed combined with Bz values below -10 nT or thereabouts. Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on October 15, 16 and 17.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 068, gebaseerd op 17 stations.

Zon indexen voor 14 Oct 2014

Wolfgetal Catania	110
10cm zonneflux	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	044
AK Wingst	022
Geschatte Ap	023
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	057 - Gebaseerd op 23 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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