Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 12 mei 2015

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2015 May 12 1230 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 May 2015	165	026
13 May 2015	165	034
14 May 2015	163	024

Bulletin

NOAA 2339 produced only low-level C-class flares, mainly over its mixed polarity trailing portion. The strongest flare was a C3.0 flare peaking at 11:51UT, with radio-bursts observed at Humain. A filament erupted at the west solar limb between 02:10 and 03:00UT. It was associated with a C2.6 flare peaking at 03:02UT. Probably in response to this event, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to increase shortly after 04:00UT, but did not reach event threshold (10 pfu), reaching a maximum of 6.2 pfu at 07:30UT. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed over the period.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed, with an active interval at Dourbes (K = 4). Starting around 05:30UT, solar wind speed gradually picked up from 340 km/s to its current value of about 380 km/s. With temperature increasing and density slightly decreasing, this may herald the anticipated arrival of the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole. Bz was mostly negative throughout the period, varying between -8 and + 4 nT.

Unsettled to minor storming conditions are expected.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 121, gebaseerd op 14 stations.

Zon indexen voor 11 May 2015

Wolfgetal Catania	180
10cm zonneflux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Geschatte Ap	018
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	114 - Gebaseerd op 26 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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