Het archief bekijken van donderdag 17 december 2015

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2015 Dec 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Dec 2015	126	008
18 Dec 2015	126	008
19 Dec 2015	126	027

Bulletin

NOAA AR 2470 produced one C flare in the past 24 hours, a C1.3 flare peaking at 5:33 UT on December 17. C flares are possible within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare. A halo CME was first seen in LASCO C2 images at 9:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the ENE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average plane-of-sky speed of 552 km/s. This CME is probably associated with the C6.6 flare released by NOAA AR 2468 with peak time 9:03 UT (which showed a dimming and a post eruption arcade as well). Its estimated arrival time at Earth is 4h UT on December 19. Another halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 images at 14:24 UT on December 16. It is an asymmetric full halo, probably frontside CME with bulk directed towards the SSE. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery provides an average plane-of-sky speed of 489 km/s. It is probably associated to a dual ribbon flaring of a filament channel near NOAA AR 2468 starting around 12:57 UT on December 16. Its estimated arrival time at Earth is 6h UT on December 19. During the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 520 to 370 km/s and then increased again to current values around 460 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 1 and 7 nT. During the past 24 hours, quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels were registered (K Dourbes between 0 and 3, NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 17 and 18. Due to the expected arrival of the December 16 CMEs, active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4-5) are expected on December 19, with a chance for moderate to major storm conditions (K Dourbes = 6-7).

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 044, gebaseerd op 08 stations.

Zon indexen voor 16 Dec 2015

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	006
Geschatte Ap	006
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	058 - Gebaseerd op 13 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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