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Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2017 Feb 20 1238 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Feb 2017	080	014
21 Feb 2017	082	017
22 Feb 2017	084	021

Bulletin

Solar activity was dominated by the sunspot groups rotating onto the disk in the NE. The Sunspot groups are numbered Catania 95 and 96 (together NOAA 2638). They produced the largest flare of the period: a B4.5 flare peaking at 11:29UT. An additional more simple region in the South- East got numbered Catania 94 (NOAA 2637). Chances for C flares have increased but are still not very probable. The equatorial part of the positive polarity coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere is transiting the central meridian today and is expected to enhance solar wind conditions again by February 23. Some faint North-Eastward CME seems to be associated with the filament eruption of February 19, but it's possible influence on Earth is not expected to be distinguishable in the high speed stream effects expected on February 23. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data. Proton flux is at background values and expected to remain so.

Solar wind speed has been declining from over 550 km/s to around 500 km/s while the total magnetic field around a nominal 5nT and Bz was mostly variable. Solar wind conditions are initially expected to further decline but should see an increase again by February 23 as the equatorial part of the positive polarity coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 0-3 and NOAA Kp 1-3) and are expected to remain so over the next days before a renewed period of active to minor storm levels is expected under the influence of the equatorial part of the coronal hole.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 034, gebaseerd op 14 stations.

Zon indexen voor 19 Feb 2017

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	014
Geschatte Ap	012
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	022 - Gebaseerd op 22 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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