Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 16 november 2021

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2021 Nov 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Nov 2021	080	021
17 Nov 2021	080	022
18 Nov 2021	080	011

Bulletin

A new, unnumbered alpha region has rotated over the East limb. The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 25%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. There is a chance that the electron flux will exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Around 15:00 UT on November 15, the solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR started increasing from about 315 km/s to a maximum of 630 km/s, with current values around 600 km/s. Around 17:30 UT, the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) started increasing from about 5 nT to a maximum of about 23 nT, with current values around 4 nT. IMF orientation was predominantly towards the Sun. This marks the arrival of a predicted high speed stream from a negative polarity extension of the south polar coronal hole. Bz was regularly below -5 nT, with a mimimum of about -17 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 4-5) are possible on November 16, 17 and 18 due to the arrival of the high speed stream mentioned above.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 030, gebaseerd op 11 stations.

Zon indexen voor 15 Nov 2021

Wolfgetal Catania	034
10cm zonneflux	079
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	014
Geschatte Ap	014
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	023 - Gebaseerd op 12 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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