Het archief bekijken van zondag 16 oktober 2022

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2022 Oct 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Oct 2022	115	007
17 Oct 2022	113	014
18 Oct 2022	111	007

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible disc, none of them created any significant flaring activity in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3112 (no longer visible) produced a C6.1 flare with peak at 14:32 UT on 15 October. There is a C-class flare ongoing at the moment of writing, currently at the C1 level, but the flux is still increasing. More C-class flaring can be expected for the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is still inside a fast solar wind stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed is at 580 km/s with an interplanetary magnetic field magnitude of 5 nT. We expect a return to slow solar wind conditions in the coming 24 hours, and a possible arrival of the CME from 13 October.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels locally (K_Dourbes up to 4) and globally (Kp up to 4). Unsettled to active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, with possible minor storm levels if the CME from 13 October arrives in about 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 060, gebaseerd op 19 stations.

Zon indexen voor 15 Oct 2022

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	021
Geschatte Ap	021
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	041 - Gebaseerd op 18 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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