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Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2023 May 05 1251 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 May 2023	162	007
06 May 2023	162	004
07 May 2023	162	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with one M2.1-class flare. This long duration flare occurred in NOAA Active Region 3296 today on May 05, peaking at 08:01 UTC. A C9.5 flare was also observed in NOAA Active Region 3297 today on May 05, peaking at 07:06 UTC. The NOAA Active Regions 3288 and 3293 continued to be active and produced several C-class flares. The flaring activity is expected to remain moderate with possible M-class flare and a small chance of X-class flare.

Many coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. The CME observed yesterday associated to the M3.9-class flare (on May 04, peaking at 08:44 UTC) was North-East directed and was determined to be a near miss. Minor to no impacted due to the glancing blow of this CME may be observed in the solar wind measurements near Earth on May 7. Today, a

The small and narrow equatorial-north coronal hole (positive magnetic polarity) is now facing Earth. The high-speed stream coming from this coronal hole may enhance solar wind conditions near Earth in about 3 days from now.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at the background levels over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold due to the enhanced solar wind conditions and is expected to remain at that level over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remind at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions near Earth is within the slow solar wind regime: The solar wind speed ranged between 375 km/s to 480 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic showed the values below 5.5 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -3.4 nT and 1.8 nT. The solar wind conditions near Earth is expected to remain within the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet (NOAA-Kp: 1 to 2) with some unsettle period observed by the local stations (K-BEL: 0 to 3). For the next 24 hours,the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet with possible short periods of unsettle conditions.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 114, gebaseerd op 14 stations.

Zon indexen voor 04 May 2023

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	009
Geschatte Ap	008
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	134 - Gebaseerd op 29 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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