Het archief bekijken van donderdag 29 februari 2024

Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Feb 29 1231 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Feb 2024	182	007
01 Mar 2024	182	008
02 Mar 2024	180	008

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flares was an M1.3 flare with peak time at 18:19 UTC on February 28 from NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). Several C-class flares were also observed from the same active region. There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region, and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. A new active region (numbered NOAA AR 3597, beta) has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the visible solar disk, around N07E11. Additionally, NOAA AR 3595 has become more magnetically complex (now having a beta-gamma configuration), while NOAA AR 3592 has now a simple (alpha) configuration. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

A westward partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME), with angular width of about 140 degrees, was first detected in the LASCO/C2 data at around 17:48 UTC on February 28. The CME originated from NOAA AR 3590 in the north-west quadrant of the solar visible disk, and was associated with the long-duration M1.3-class flare peaking at 18:19 UTC. The plane-of-the-sky speed of the CME was around 500 km/s and may result in a flank encounter at Earth early on March 3.

Zonnewind

In the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters gently declined towards slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from about 455 km/s to about 390 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT. The Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle remained in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 2) and reached unsettled conditions locally (K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux niveaus

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 128, gebaseerd op 08 stations.

Zon indexen voor 28 Feb 2024

Wolfgetal Catania	///
10cm zonneflux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Geschatte Ap	005
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	121 - Gebaseerd op 12 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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