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Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 May 07 1257 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 May 2024	170	008
08 May 2024	169	012
09 May 2024	168	008

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels with few M-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest reported flare was GOES M5.2 flare, which peaked at 06:16 UT on May 07, from NOAA AR 3663. During the flare, the source region (AR 3663) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta), AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta), and AR 3668 (beta-gamma) are the magnetically complex regions which produced all flaring activity over the past 24 hours. All three regions produced M-class flares. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares.

Coronale massa uitstoten

Further analysis of a coronal mass ejections (CME), detected at 15:36 UTC on May 05 in LASCO C2 data with a projected speed of 325 km/s and a projected width of 118 degree (as measured by Cactus tool), shows a possible glancing blow at Earth on May 10. This CME was associated with the eruption seen around NOAA AR 3664 and AR 3668 on the SE quadrant of the Sun around 14:20 UT on May 05. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Zonnewind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were still under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May 03. The solar wind speed ranged between 450 km/s to 600 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 12 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Geomagnetisme

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4) due to the continuous arrival of high speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May 03. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 187, gebaseerd op 12 stations.

Zon indexen voor 06 May 2024

Wolfgetal Catania	199
10cm zonneflux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	022
Geschatte Ap	022
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	185 - Gebaseerd op 16 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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