OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a short-term forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval for both the northern and the southern hemisphere. It is based on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the right-hand corner of the map. Locations up to 1.000 kilometers (600 miles) north or south of the auroral oval might still see aurora near their horizon during optimal viewing conditions. This model does not take into account the local weather or the altitude of the Sun at your location.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Hemispheric Power

The OVATION model calculates a globally integrated total energy deposition in GigaWatts for up to 30 minutes in the future. For values below about 20GW, there may be little or no aurora observable. For values between 20 and 50, you may need to be near the aurora to see it. For values above 50, the aurora should be quite observable with lots of activity and motion across the sky. Once the Hemispheric Power reaches levels of 100 or more, this is considered to be a very significant geomagnetic storm.

What are the odds that I can see overhead aurora from my location?

Canada
Halifax, NS0%
Montreal, QC0%
Ottawa, ON0%
Quebec City, QC0%
St. John's, NL0%
Toronto, ON0%
Cuba
Havana0%
Mexico
Mexico City0%
United States
Atlanta, GA0%
Augusta, ME0%
Boston, MA0%
Columbus, OH0%
Detroit, MI0%
Indianapolis, IN0%
Jackson, MS0%
Little Rock, AR0%
Miami, FL0%
Montpelier, VT0%
Nashville, TN0%
New York City, NY0%
Richmond, VA0%
Washington, D.C.0%
Belgium
Brussels0%
France
Lyon0%
Marseille0%
Nantes0%
Nice0%
Paris0%
Toulouse0%
Ireland
Dublin0%
Italy
Milan0%
Naples0%
Rome0%
Turin0%
Portugal
Lisbon0%
Porto0%
Spain
Barcelona0%
Madrid0%
Switzerland
Bern0%
United Kingdom
Belfast0%
Birmingham0%
London0%
Manchester0%
Argentina
Buenos Aires0%
Comodoro Rivadavia1%
Ushuaia1%
Chile
Concepcion0%
Punta Arenas1%
South Africa
Capetown0%
Durban0%
Uruguay
Montevideo0%

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