3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 02-Feb 04 2026 is 1 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Feb 02       Feb 03       Feb 04
00-03UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     
06-09UT       1.00         1.00         1.33     
09-12UT       1.00         1.00         1.33     
12-15UT       0.67         0.67         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.33     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 02-Feb 04 2026

              Feb 02  Feb 03  Feb 04
S1 or greater    5%     10%     10%

Rationale

No There is a slight chance for S1(Minor) or greater solar radiation storms on 03 and 04 February as Region 4366 moves into an increasingly favorable position.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 01 2026 1233 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 02-Feb 04 2026

              Feb 02        Feb 03        Feb 04
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale

R2 radio blackouts are expected. Active region 4366 is expected to produce more flare activity over the next three days, with a chance for an R3 or greater event.