3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2026 May 04 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 04-May 06 2026 is 3 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             May 04       May 05       May 06
00-03UT       2.67         2.00         1.67     
03-06UT       3.00         2.67         2.00     
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         2.67     
09-12UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     
12-15UT       1.67         1.00         0.67     
15-18UT       1.67         0.67         0.67     
18-21UT       0.67         1.00         1.67     
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 04-May 06 2026

              May 04  May 05  May 06
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 04-May 06 2026

              May 04        May 05        May 06
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.