3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Jun 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024 is 4 (.00below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Jun 15       Jun 16       Jun 17
00-03UT       2.33         4.00         1.67     
03-06UT       2.00         3.67         1.67     
06-09UT       2.00         3.33         2.00     
09-12UT       2.67         3.33         2.00     
12-15UT       3.67         2.33         2.33     
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         2.00     
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         2.33     
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         3.00     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024

              Jun 15  Jun 16  Jun 17
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 15-17 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jun 15 2024 0627 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 15-Jun 17 2024

              Jun 15        Jun 16        Jun 17
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale
There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 15-17 Jun.

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

76%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/06/10X1.55
Last M-flare2024/06/15M1.3
Last geomagnetic storm2024/06/07Kp6 (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
May 2024171.7 +35.2
June 2024158.7 -13
Last 30 days146.6 -31.2

This day in history*

Solar flares
12003X1.9
22001M9.11
32000M2.9
42000M2.67
52014M1.57
ApG
1197437G2
2200023G2
3202326G1
4198226G1
5195821G1
*since 1994

Social networks