3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Jul 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA scale G1).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024 is 4 (.67NOAA scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Jul 27       Jul 28       Jul 29
00-03UT       3.67         2.67         3.00     
03-06UT       4.00         2.33         2.67     
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         2.00     
09-12UT       3.33         2.00         2.67     
12-15UT       2.33         1.67         2.67     
15-18UT       2.33         2.00         2.00     
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         2.67     
21-00UT       2.33         2.33         3.67     

Rationale

G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 27 Jul due to CH HSS and CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024

              Jul 27  Jul 28  Jul 29
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale

There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 27-29 Jul.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jul 22 2024 0404 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 27-Jul 29 2024

              Jul 27        Jul 28        Jul 29
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater, over 27-29 Jul.