3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2025 Aug 15 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 15-Aug 17 2025 is 3 (.67below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Aug 15       Aug 16       Aug 17
00-03UT       2.67         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       3.67         1.67         1.67     
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       2.33         1.33         1.33     
21-00UT       2.33         1.67         1.67     

Rationale

No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2025

              Aug 15  Aug 16  Aug 17
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 15-Aug 17 2025

              Aug 15        Aug 16        Aug 17
R1-R2           35%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale

There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 15-17 Aug.