Solar and Geomagnetic Activity report | Reports of solar activity and geophysical activity

Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 14/0615Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3824 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).

III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug

Class M	35%	30%	30%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       14 Aug 130
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  017/ 015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  008/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	10%	10%
Minor storm	10%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	15%	15%
Minor storm	25%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	45%	20%	20%

The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

C6.83

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