Solar activity report

Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0627Z from Region 3712 (S25E14). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 15/1644Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 15/1220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 15/1140Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 171
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 175/175/180
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 176

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  013/015-008/008-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%35%
Minor storm20%05%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%30%50%

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