Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Dec 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.3 at 21/1827 from Region 4316 (S08E26, Dri/beta), which has been exhibiting rapid flux emergence on the western edge of its leading spot. Region 4317 (N11E64, Cao/beta) produced most of the C-flare activity observed this period, and continued to exhibit growth though confidence in its classification is low due to foreshortening effects. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance (20%) for M-class flares through 23 Dec, with 24 Dec increasing to a chance (30%).

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,570 pfu observed. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-23 Dec, with a possible threshold crossing on 24 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Dec.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

The solar wind environment became enhanced this period with the onset of CIR effects beginning at around 21/0000 UTC. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached a peak of 15 nT, with the Bz component showing an almost periodic oscillation between +/- 10 nT for several hours before decreasing to roughly +/- 3 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of around 450 km/s to a peak near 700 km/s. Phi was mostly positive throughout the period.

Forecast

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 22-24 Dec due to CIR effects followed by positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storming levels this period in response to CIR effects.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue reaching active levels 22-24 Dec, due to persistent CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) storm periods, on 22-23 Dec.