Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2026 Feb 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at high levels. While flaring continued to be led by Region 4366 (N14W19, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), including the most energetic event of the period, a long-duration M2.7 flare at 05/0441 UTC, the region exhibited a slight decline in magnetic complexity. In contrast, Region 4371 (S22E34, Dki/beta-delta) showed rapid growth in area and gained a delta configuration during the period. Along with Region 4362 (S17W22, Cao/beta), which experienced modest growth in extend, these regions were responsible for a series of C and M-class flares. All other regions on the visible disk remained either stable or showed decline in extent. A coronal mass ejection was observed off the south/southwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 05/1548 UTC. The source is likely associated with an M1.8/1N flare from Region 4362 that peaked at 05/1513 UTC. Surface signatures in SUVI 284 imagery showed a faint southerly deflected EUV wave. Analysis of this event is ongoing.

Forecast

Moderate to high solar activity is expected (80%) due to M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for 06-08 Feb, with a chance (35%) for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to the complexity of Region 4366 and 4371.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at or below moderate levers throughout the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels through 08 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a low chance (25%) to exceed S1 (Minor) levels over 06-08 Feb due to the high eruptive potential and increasingly favorable position of Region 4366 in the western hemisphere.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters reflected the transition from the passage of the complex CME associated with the 01 Feb X8.1 flare into a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS). Total magnetic field (Bt) peaked at 19 nT at 05/0219 UTC and then declined monotonically, ending the period at less than 8 nT. Early in the period, the Bz (north-south) component reached its greatest southward deviation of -16 nT before turning northward at 05/0532 UTC where it remained with some minor southward fluctuations. Wind speeds showed a steady upward trend throughout the period, rising from approximately 400 km/s to over 600 km/s. This speed increase was accompanied by a correlating increase in temperature and decrease in density which is consistent with CH HSS arrival. The Phi angle remained entirely in the positive (Away from the Sun) orientation.

Forecast

The solar wind is expected to remain elevated through 07 Feb as Earth remains in the -CH HSS. A disturbance is anticipated on 08 Feb with the arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament eruption.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet to Minor (G1) storm levels.

Forecast

Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach up to Minor (G1) storm levels on 06 Feb due to lingering CME effects coupled with the influence of the CH HSS. Conditions are forecast to remain generally active on 07 Feb before a likely return to Minor (G1) storm levels on 08 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament eruption.