Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Oct 14 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 3848 (N15W83, Cko/beta-gamma) produced an M3.4/Sf (R1-Minor) at 14/0017 UTC. Associated with this event was a 545 km/s Type II radio sweep. The region indicated some northern leader spot separation. Region 3849 (S06W61, Dai/beta) produced a C2.8 flare at 13/1516 UTC. The region indicated some leader spot consolidation. Region 3852 (S10W21, Dki/beta-gamma) lost a weak delta signature this period. Associated with the M3.4 flare was a CME off the NW limb. LASCO C2 imagery first observed this CME at 14/0048 UTC. Analysis and model output of this CME suggests no Earth-directed component. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate due to isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 16 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained near background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 14 Oct due to post-CME effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 15-16 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a slight chance for a solar radiation storm event through 15 Oct as Regions 3848 and 3849 transit the western limb.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters reflected weakening CME effects. Total field was steady near 5 nT over the course of the period. The Bz component was variable between +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from a high of ~475 km/s to ~400 km/s. The phi angle was variable.

Forecast

Weak enhancements are anticipated for 14 Oct due to CH HSS influences. An additional enhancement is possible by late 15 and 16 Oct due to the glancing influence of the CME originating from AR 3854 on 11 Oct.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods on 14 Oct, as CH HSS influence becomes the dominant solar wind feature. Primarily quiet conditions are expected early on 15 Oct. Unsettled to active conditions are expected once again late on 15 Oct, with G1 (Minor) storms likely in the early hours of 16 Oct, due to glancing effects from a CME that left the Sun on 11 Oct along with CH HSS influence.