Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2026 May 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4432 (N14W42, Dai/beta) produced numerous low-level C-flares throughout the period, the largest being a C2.3 at 09/0331 UTC, as the region developed additional intermediate spots. New Region 4436 (N18E69, Dao/beta) was numbered, however, its proximity to the limb made analysis of the region difficult. The remaining regions were mostly stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 10-12 May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 10-12 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 12 May.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

The solar wind environment remained slightly enhanced under persistent, yet weakening, positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached 6 nT, the Bz component was predominately neutral or northward throughout the period. Solar wind speeds ranged between 450-550 km/s. Phi oscillated between a positive and negative orientation throughout the period.

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced through 12 May under positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 10-12 May as positive polarity CH HSS influences persist.