Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Sep 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 3828 (S13E40, Dsi/beta-gamma) exhibited growth and was inactive. Region 3825 (S16W12, Esi/beta-gamma-delta) was mostly stable. Region 3824 (S04W74, Eao/beta) was stable as it rotated closer to the limb. New Region 3831 (N11E14, Cso/beta) was numbered and was inactive. The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast

There is a chance for solar activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 19-21 Sep.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 19-21 Sep.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters indicated possible transient influences after 18/2100 UTC. Solar wind speed averaged near 425 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-8 nT while the Bz component became south after 18/2045 UTC and reached a sustained period at -7 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels on 19-20 Sep. By 21 Sep, an enhancement is possible with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 19/00-03z synoptic period due to transient influences.

Forecast

Quiet to active levels are expected on 19 Sep due to sustained southward Bz and the slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 20 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 21 Sep due to possible CH HSS influence.