Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2026 Mar 25 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Mar 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at low levels, with the largest flare of the period was a C7.2 at 24/1754 UTC from beyond the east limb. A new spot region rotated into few several hours later and was numbered Region 4403 (N16E68, Hax/alpha), though classification is difficult due to substantial foreshortening effects. As Region 4392 (S17, L=16) rotated off the western limb at 24/0000 UTC, there are still seven numbered sunspot groups on the visible disk, with the majority of these regions remaining stable or exhibiting signs of slight decay. Changes were notable in the disks most complex regions: Region 4401 (N25E25, Eai/beta-gamma) has rotated further into view and, alongside significant flux emergence, has revealed a gamma configuration. The trailing spots of Region 4400 (S12W66, Dri/beta) faded throughout the period and simplification around the leading spot led to loss of its delta configuration. An eruption associated with the C7.2 became visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 24/1800 UTC. While triangulation with STEREO COR2 shows that the CME was not fully farside oriented, modeling indicates no Earth directed component, as the CME was deflected out of the ecliptic plane. A long-duration C3.7 from Region 4400 at 25/0030 UTC also had an associated eruption, first visible in LASCO C2 at 25/0036 UTC. Despite the fast velocity, modeling indicates this eruption is narrow enough that no Earth directed component is expected.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 27 Mar.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak 11,906 pfu at 24/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux persisted at nominal background levels with observed minor enhancements likely being the result of high-energy electron contamination in the instrument.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels through 27 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

For the majority of the reporting period, solar wind parameters reflected the continued waning of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS): wind speed decreasing from ~600 km/s to ~525 km/s; Bt averaging 4 nT with the North-South (Bz) component ranging +/- 4 nT; and the phi angle primarily in a negative (towards the Sun) orientation. At 25/0552 UTC, a magnetic transient began moving through the near-Earth environment, with a slight increase in Bt (3 nT) and more substantial increase in wind speed (~100 km/s). Conditions steadily increased, with Bt reaching a max of 10 nT at 25/0835 nT, and Bz having several southward deflections of sustained -5-7 nT, though the wind speed maintaining an average of approximately 680 km/s. By the end of the reporting period, conditions had begun a gradual decline.

Forecast

Mildly enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to persist through 26 Mar as -CH HSS conditions continue to wane. By late on 26 Mar, additional enhancements are possible as a CME, which departed the Sun on 22 Mar, is forecast to pass in close proximity to Earth. A slow recovery toward nominal levels is anticipated on 27 Mar.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storming levels in the later half of the reporting period due to effects from a magnetic transient.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming levels possible, through the rest of 25 Mar as negative polarity CH HSS and the magnetic transient influences gradually diminish. The potential glancing impacts from the 22 Mar CME are expected to result in unsettled to active levels late on 26 Mar. Activity levels are expected to stabilize at quiet to unsettled levels on 27 Mar as transient and coronal hole influences subside.