Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Apr 04 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were observed from Regions 4048 (S16E14, Fkc/beta-gamma) and 4045 (S14W18, Cao/beta). Slight decay and separation was observed in Region 4048. Other activity included an approximate 4 degree filament eruption centered near S20W05 at 03/0334 UTC. An associated faint, narrow CME was observed off the SSE limb at 03/0412 UTC. Modelling of the event showed the majority of the CME south of the Sun-Earth line. However, a potential grazing early on 06 Apr cannot be ruled out.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 04-06 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be enhanced around 1 pfu, but well below the S1 (Minor) threshold.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 04 Apr. A chance for high levels is likely on 05-06 Apr due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on 04-06 Apr.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under persistent CME influence. Total field ranged from 2-11 nT while the Bz component was between +/-10 nT. Solar wind speed averaged around 440 km/s. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast

Solar wind parameters are expected to transition into a negative polarity CIR/CH HSS on 04 Apr. HSS influence is expected to persist through 06 Apr. There is a chance for a grazing from the 03 Apr CME early on 06 Apr, however confidence is low.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels due to persistent CME effects.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming on 04-05 Apr due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on 06 Apr as HSS effects gradually wane.