Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Jun 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3712 (S24E21, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.3 flare at 15/0626 UTC, along with several C-class flares this period. The region exhibited moderate growth in the intermediate and trailer spot areas and increased in area. Minor growth was observed in Regions 3713 (S13E36, Eso/beta-gamma) and 3716 (N10E30, Dsi/beta), and new Region 3717 (N08W26, Bxo/beta) was numbered. The remaining regions were stable and no Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low over 15-17 Jun with chance for M-class flares.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels this period.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 17 Jun. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 15-17 Jun.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions until around 15/1103 UTC, when an interplanetary shock was observed at L1. Following the shock arrival, total field increased to 14 nT and the Bz component reached -13 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to a peak of around 450 km/s. The phi angle became variable after 14/1900 UTC.
Forecast
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected through the remainder of 15 Jun and into early 16 Jun due to CME activity. A mildly enhanced solar wind environment is expected on 17 Jun due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The IP shock observed at L1 has yet to arrive at Earth at the time of this writing.
Forecast
Periods of active conditions are expected on 15-16 Jun, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storms, due to CME activity. Quiet and unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jun due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

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