Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Apr 27 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity declined to low levels this period with only C-class flare activity observed. Region 3654 (S08W16, Ehi/beta-gamma) remained the largest region on the disk and exhibited moderate development in the intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3657 (S15W25, Bxo/beta) reemerged with a few rudimentary spots and new Region 3660 (N10E71, Axx/alpha) was numbered. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 27-29 Apr with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 27-29 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 27-29 Apr.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

The solar wind environment was enhanced due to likely CME activity early in the period, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 17 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward through the first half of the period, with a peak deflection of -11 nT observed. During the latter half of the period, the Bz component rotated northward with only brief southward deflections observed. Solar wind speeds were steady between 300-350 km/s until 27/0230 UTC, when speed values slowly increased to a period high of around 550 km/s. The phi angle transitioned from negative to positive at 26/1502 UTC.

Forecast

Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels this period.

Forecast

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz.