Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2025 Apr 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C8.0/1f at 02/1053 UTC from Region 4048 (S16E27, Fkc/beta-gamma). Region 4048 continued to exhibit separation and slight decay in its intermediate spots. Consolidation was occurring within its leading spots. The region also appeared to lose its delta magnetic configuration. Slight growth was observed in Regions 4044 (N20W30, Dao/beta) and 4049 (S30E01, Dso/beta). New Region 4050 (N27W02, Bxo/beta) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 03-05 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 31/1105 UTC, reached a peak flux of 147 pfu at 01/0425 UTC, ended at 02/0910 UTC. Levels continued to be elevated near 3 pfu, but subsiding.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 03-04 Apr. A chance for high levels is likely on 05 Apr due to CH HSS influence. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event on 03-05 Apr.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters continued to be weakly enhanced under transient effects. Total field ranged from 6-11 nT with the Bz component between +6/-9 nT. Solar wind speed averaged around 450 km/s. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast

Weak transient activity will likely continue through early on 03 Apr. Another enhancement is expected early to midday on 04 Apr due to the arrival of a CIR preceding a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. HSS influence is expected to persist through 05 Apr.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CME influence.

Forecast

Unsettled to active levels are expected through early on 03 Apr due to residual CME influence. On 04-05 Apr, CIR/CH HSS is expected to cause unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm conditions.