Het archief bekijken van woensdag 30 september 1998
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Sep 30 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 273 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 SEP 1998IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8340 (N19W92)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M2/2N FLARE AT 30/1350Z. THIS EVENT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TYPE II/IV SWEPT FREQUENCY EVENTS AND A 490
SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ. MUCH MATERIAL MOTION WAS VISIBLE ALONG AND
ABOVE THE NORTHWEST LIMB IN THE FORM OF BRIGHT SURGES, ERUPTIVE
PROMINENCES, AND LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEMS. OTHER REGIONS ON THE DISK
WERE STABLE OR SLOWLY DECAYING.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME VERY LOW
TO LOW AS THE REGIONS AT OR OVER THE NORTHWEST LIMB BECOME LESS
VISIBLE DUE TO SOLAR ROTATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY REGION
8340 MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER M-CLASS EVENT FROM BEHIND THE WEST LIMB
BETWEEN NOW AND 02 OCT.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. THE GREATER
THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX CROSSED THE 1 PFU THRESHOLD AT 30/1435Z AND
REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 3 PFU DURING THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10
MEV FLUX REACHED EVENT THRESHOLD OF 10 PFU AT 30/1520Z. DURING THE
PERIOD, A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 840 PFU WAS OBSERVED. A POLAR CAP
ABSORPTION EVENT ACCOMPANIED THE PROTON EVENT. A MAXIMUM ABSORPTION
OF 4.3 DB WAS OBSERVED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 01-02 OCT. UNSETTLED TO
SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 03 OCT. THE GREATER THAN
10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 OCT tot 03 OCT
| Klasse M | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Klasse X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 30 SEP 122 Voorspeld 01 OCT-03 OCT 110/107/105 90 Day Mean 30 SEP 130
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP 004/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT 008/012-008/010-010/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 OCT tot 03 OCT
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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