Het archief bekijken van woensdag 30 september 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 273 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 30 SEP 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 29-2100Z tot 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8340 (N19W92) PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M2/2N FLARE AT 30/1350Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TYPE II/IV SWEPT FREQUENCY EVENTS AND A 490 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ. MUCH MATERIAL MOTION WAS VISIBLE ALONG AND ABOVE THE NORTHWEST LIMB IN THE FORM OF BRIGHT SURGES, ERUPTIVE PROMINENCES, AND LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEMS. OTHER REGIONS ON THE DISK WERE STABLE OR SLOWLY DECAYING.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME VERY LOW TO LOW AS THE REGIONS AT OR OVER THE NORTHWEST LIMB BECOME LESS VISIBLE DUE TO SOLAR ROTATION. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY REGION 8340 MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER M-CLASS EVENT FROM BEHIND THE WEST LIMB BETWEEN NOW AND 02 OCT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX CROSSED THE 1 PFU THRESHOLD AT 30/1435Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 3 PFU DURING THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV FLUX REACHED EVENT THRESHOLD OF 10 PFU AT 30/1520Z. DURING THE PERIOD, A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 840 PFU WAS OBSERVED. A POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT ACCOMPANIED THE PROTON EVENT. A MAXIMUM ABSORPTION OF 4.3 DB WAS OBSERVED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 01-02 OCT. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 03 OCT. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 01 OCT tot 03 OCT
Klasse M20%20%05%
Klasse X05%05%01%
Proton10%10%01%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       30 SEP 122
  Voorspeld   01 OCT-03 OCT  110/107/105
  90 Day Mean        30 SEP 130
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT  008/012-008/010-010/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 01 OCT tot 03 OCT
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief10%10%10%
Kleine stormcondities05%05%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%01%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief20%20%25%
Kleine stormcondities10%10%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%

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