Het archief bekijken van donderdag 01 oktober 1998

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 1998 Oct 01 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 274 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 01 OCT 1998

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 30-2100Z tot 01-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. MOST WERE NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED TO ANY SPECIFIC REGION. REGION 8349 (S26E29) GREW SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. THE LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM, VISIBLE AFTER THE FLARE ON 30 SEP FROM REGION 8340 (NOW AT N23W106), FADED DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8350 (N20E79) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AS A MODERATE SIZE H CLASS SPOT.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A LOW LEVEL. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A DIMINISHING PROBABILITY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM DEPARTED REGION 8340. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS 01/0000-0300Z. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A MODERATELY HIGH VELOCITY FLOW IMPACTING THE EARTH. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 1200 PFU AT 01/0025Z. FLUXES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WERE BELOW 40 PFU. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX DROPPED BELOW THE 1 PFU THRESHOLD AT 30/2235Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT CONTINUED BUT DECAYED AS THE PROTON FLUX DECREASED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES WERE HIGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY AND DECREASED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 02 OCT. IT IS NOW BELIEVED THAT ON 02-03 OCT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE AN OBLIQUE STRIKE FROM A LARGE CME ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTIVITY ON 30 SEP. UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING 02-03 OCT WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 04 OCT. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 PFU IN 1-2 DAYS.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 02 OCT tot 04 OCT
Klasse M20%10%10%
Klasse X05%01%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       01 OCT 119
  Voorspeld   02 OCT-04 OCT  115/113/112
  90 Day Mean        01 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetische A index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT  017/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT  015/020-018/020-012/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 02 OCT tot 04 OCT
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%40%25%
Kleine stormcondities10%15%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%10%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%35%30%
Kleine stormcondities20%20%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%10%10%

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