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Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Nov 24 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 329 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 Nov 2000 : : : : : : :CORRECTION: : : : : : : :

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z

Solar activity is now at high levels. Magnetograms revealed developing complexity late last period in Region 9236 (N22W07) and a series of significant events followed. The first was an M1/1n at 23/2328Z with associated Type II sweep (1025km/s) and CME. At 24/0502Z, an X2/3b flare erupted with strong centimetric radio bursts including a Tenflare of 2200sfu. This event was also accompanied by a Type II sweep (1000km/s), a proton event, and a halo CME. The third significant event from this region was an X2/2b that occurred at 24/1513Z. This flare was also accompanied by large centimetric radio bursts, a Type II sweep (1200km/s), proton event, and a halo CME. This region, at over 500 millionths of sunspot areal coverage, is magnetically complex and still developing. Region 9231 (S24W74) was mostly stable this period, producing only an isolated low C-class flare. New region 9242 (N22E68) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 continues to develop and is very capable of continued M-class and X-class events. Region 8231's complexity will likely result in occasional C-class events with an isolated chance of a small M-class flare.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions observed late in the period. Solar wind data indicates we've transitioned to a high speed stream over the past eighteen hours with current solar wind speed ranging 500 to 550km/s. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 24/1520Z and is currently in progress. A maximum of 84 pfu was reached at 24/1905Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 23/1720Z, with a maximum of 1.1pfu observed at 24/1810Z. The initial proton enhancement began following the X2/3b flare at 0502Z. A second impulse of protons was evident following the X2/2b at 1513Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one due to high speed coronal hole flow. The first of a series of CME 's are expected to impact the field early on day two. As many as four individual CME's occurring over the past forty hours appeared earthbound. Minor to major storming is likely on days two and three. Another proton event is possible should Region 9236 produce an additional major flare.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 Nov tot 27 Nov
Klasse M70%70%70%
Klasse X40%40%40%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       24 Nov 197
  Voorspeld   25 Nov-27 Nov  200/200/195
  90 Day Mean        24 Nov 174
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 23 Nov  004/007
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  008/008
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-060/070-050/060
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 Nov tot 27 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities25%40%40%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%40%40%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities30%30%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%50%50%

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