Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 25 november 2000

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2000 Nov 25 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 330 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 25 Nov 2000

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z

Solar activity continued at high levels. The period began with another X-class flare from Region 9236 (N22W20). The X1/2n flare occurred at 24/2159Z and had associated minor centimetric radio bursts and a CME. Reports of strong doppler shifts in the NE-SW filament in Region 9240 (N08E34) were soon followed by an impressive eruption at 25/0131Z. The eruption included an M8/2N, long duration ribbon flare with strong radio bursts including a 14000 sfu Tenflare. Strong Type II and IV sweeps also occurred with this flare and a CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 9236 flared again, producing an M3/2n flare and CME at 25/0920Z. The period ended with an X1/2b from Region 9236 with moderate to strong radio bursts and Type II sweep (910km/s). It appears that yet another Earth-directed CME was associated with this event. No significant new growth was noted in Region 9236 over the past 18 hours, but it continues to produce frequent flares in a complex, beta-gamma configuration exceeding 600 millionths of white light coverage.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels. Region 9236 is capable of continued M and X-class events. A filament has reformed in the vicinity of the 0131Z eruption in Region 9240. If the present pattern continues, we should see another major event from this region in the next three days.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1520Z is still in progress and is currently ranging 12 to 18 pfu. The maximum so far was 93 pfu at 24/1920Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 24/1720Z, ended at 24/1820Z with a peak flux of 1.1 pfu at 24/1810Z.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor to major storm levels early in day one. We observed as many as six Earth directed CME'S in the last 48 hours, so minor to major storm levels are expected through the next three days. Another proton event is possible should Regions 9236 or 9240 produce another major flare.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 26 Nov tot 28 Nov
Klasse M75%70%60%
Klasse X50%40%35%
Proton80%50%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       25 Nov 202
  Voorspeld   26 Nov-28 Nov  200/195/195
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 24 Nov  009/009
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  010/012
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  060/070-050/060-030/040
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 26 Nov tot 28 Nov
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief20%20%50%
Kleine stormcondities40%40%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities40%40%20%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief20%20%40%
Kleine stormcondities30%30%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities50%50%30%

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