Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 27 juli 2002

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2002 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 208 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 27 Jul 2002

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 44 (S22E03) produced two major flares early in the period: an M8/2n at 26/2112 UTC and an M5 at 26/2217 UTC, both associated with moderate to strong discrete radio bursts. The M8 flare was also associated with a full-halo CME. Both major flares occurred along the magnetic neutral line separating Regions 44 and 39 (S16E07). Some decay was observed in the leader spots of Region 44, but it remained large and magnetically complex with a magnetic delta configuration evident within its intermediate spots. Region 39 produced isolated C-class flares including a C9/Sf at 27/0212 UTC. It also remained large and complex, but changed little during the period. Strong magnetic delta configurations persisted within its leading and trailing spots. Region 45 (N06W25) was in a growth phase and displayed minor polarity mixing. New Region 51 (S17E65) was assigned.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from Regions 39 and 44. There is also a fair chance for a major flare from either of these regions.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 26-2100Z tot 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels during most of the period. This activity may have been due to a weak high-speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0655 UTC ended at 27/0320 UTC. The maximum flux for this event was 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels at the start of the period. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels beginning late on 28 July as today's halo CME reaches Earth. This disturbance is expected to subside to mostly unsettled levels by 30 July. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 28 Jul tot 30 Jul
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       27 Jul 231
  Voorspeld   28 Jul-30 Jul  230/225/220
  90 Day Mean        27 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 26 Jul  010/017
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 27 Jul  013/017
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/012-025/030-018/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 28 Jul tot 30 Jul
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief30%40%30%
Kleine stormcondities10%20%10%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%10%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief35%45%35%
Kleine stormcondities15%25%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%15%10%

<< Keer terug naar de overview pagina

Laatste nieuws

Steun Poollicht.be!

Om ook bereikbaar te blijven bij grote poollichtkansen hebben we een zware server nodig die alle bezoekers aankan. Doneer en steun dit project zodat we online blijven en je geen enkele poollichtkans mist!

100%

Ruimteweer feitjes

Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting10/09/2017X8.2
Laatste M-klasse uitbarsting29/05/2020M1.1
Laatste geomagnetische storm22/11/2020Kp5 (G1)
Zonnevlekkenloze dagen
Afgelopen 365 dagen243 dagen
2020211 dagen (64%)
Laatste zonnevlekkenloze dag16/11/2020

Deze dag in de geschiedenis*

Zonnevlammen
12000X4.0
21999M6.0
31999M5.7
42000M2.2
51997M2.0
ApG
1199436G2
2200028G2
3200213G1
4200412
5200811
*sinds 1994

Sociale netwerken