Het archief bekijken van zondag 28 juli 2002
Activiteitenrapport
Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2002 Jul 28 2200 UTCOpgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be
USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit
SDF Nummer 209 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 28 Jul 2002IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 27-2100Z tot 28-2100Z
Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 39
(S15W04) produced an M2/Sf flare at 28/0035 UTC as well as
occasional C-class flares. No significant changes occurred within
Region 39. It remained large and magnetically complex with strong,
persistent delta configurations within its leading and trailing
spots. Region 44 (S21W11) produced isolated C-class flares during
the period. Slight decay was noted in the leading and trailing
portions of the region. However, it became slightly more
magnetically complex as new flux emerged that strengthened the delta
within its intermediate spots. Region 50 (S07E09) was in a rapid
growth phase and produced isolated subflares. New Regions 52
(N09E17), 53 (S17E24), and 54 (S21E70) were numbered.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. M-class flares are likely from Regions 39
and 44. Either region could produce a major flare during the period.
Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 27-2100Z tot 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels,
possibly due to a weak negative-polarity high-speed stream. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
enhanced and continued to gradually decrease toward background
levels.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
A geomagnetic field disturbance
is expected to begin early on 29 July and continue into 30 July in
response to the M8/halo-CME event of 26 July. Active to major storm
levels are possible during this disturbance. Field activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Region
39 or 44 may produce a proton flare during the period.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 29 Jul tot 31 Jul
| Klasse M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klasse X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Geobserveerd 28 Jul 239 Voorspeld 29 Jul-31 Jul 245/245/240 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetische A index
Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 27 Jul 011/019 Verwacht Afr/Ap 28 Jul 010/015 Voorspeld Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 025/030-018/020-010/010
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 29 Jul tot 31 Jul
| A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hoge breedtegraad | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actief | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Kleine stormcondities | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Zware-ernstige stormcondities | 15% | 10% | 01% |
Laatste nieuws
woensdag 03 maart 2021 - 11:06 UTC
Geomagnetic storming, coronal hole
maandag 22 februari 2021 - 19:10 UTC
Filament eruption, G1 storm watch
donderdag 18 februari 2021 - 13:19 UTC
Coronal hole faces Earth
Laatste forumberichten
- K8, serieus? 2
- Suggesties? 5
- Poollichtkans 14 mei 2019 5
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Ruimteweer feitjes
| Laatste X-klasse uitbarsting | 10/09/2017 | X8.2 |
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