Het archief bekijken van dinsdag 12 juli 2005


Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Jul 12 2320 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 193 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 12 Jul 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 11-2100Z tot 12-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N11W70) produced numerous C-class flares and two M1 flares this period. A C8 flare was observed at 12/0802Z with an associated faint CME. The first of two M1 flares was observed at 12/1306Z. Weak radio emissions and another faint CME was associated with this event. A more complex and long duration M1 flare occurred at 12/1624Z. Radio emissions included a 750 sfu Tenflare and Type IV radio sweep. A bright CME was observed on LASCO imagery. Although most of the ejecta was westward directed, faint extensions of this CME were visible over the north pole and over the east limb. Region 786 maintains a complex beta-gamma-delta configuration as it approaches the west limb. The remaining regions on the visible disk were stable.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class activity is possible from Region 786.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 11-2100Z tot 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. A discontinuity in the solar wind plasma parameters at around 12/0400Z was likely the arrival of transient flow from the 9 July CME. Solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to near 550 km/s. The IMF Bz was southward for extended periods of time before rotating northward at around 1600Z. Minor to major storming was observed at high latitudes between 12/0000 - 1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 13 and 14 July. Minor storm conditions are possible on 15 July associated with today's CME activity.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 13 Jul tot 15 Jul
Klasse M40%40%10%
Klasse X10%10%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       12 Jul 096
  Voorspeld   13 Jul-15 Jul  090/085/080
  90 Day Mean        12 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 11 Jul  014/023
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 12 Jul  030/050
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  015/018-008/012-015/020
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 13 Jul tot 15 Jul
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities15%10%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%05%05%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Kleine stormcondities20%10%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%10%

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