Het archief bekijken van woensdag 13 juli 2005

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2005 Jul 13 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 194 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 13 Jul 2005

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 12-2100Z tot 13-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 786 (N11W84) continues its very active ways as it rotates around the west limb. The region was responsible for all flare activity this period, which included numerous C-class x-ray flares and five M-class events. The largest and most impressive of these events was the long duration M5 flare at 13/1449Z. Moderate to strong centimetric radio bursts accompanied this event including a 2000 sfu Tenflare. A bright, fast, predominantly westward directed CME (1360 km/s) was also observed. A long duration M1 x-ray event and Tenflare (250 sfu) occurred at 13/0316Z. A CME was also observed on LASCO imagery following this event. A relatively impulsive M3 flare occurred at 13/1219Z. Region 786 is a moderate size sunspot group with a strong delta configuration. New Region 790 (S10W35) was numbered today.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels for one more day as Region 786 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to return to low to very low levels on 15 and 16 July.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 12-2100Z tot 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of new CME material at the ACE spacecraft early this period. Extended periods of southward IMF Bz and solar wind speeds exceeding 600 km/s resulted in active to minor storm conditions at all latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV protons are slowly rising following today's M5 flare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. The CMEs observed yesterday and today are expected to produce active to minor storm levels on 15 and 16 July. Isolated major storm periods are possible at high latitudes. The greater than 10 Mev protons will likely pass the 10 pfu alert threshold early on 14 July.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 14 Jul tot 16 Jul
Klasse M50%20%10%
Klasse X10%01%01%
Proton20%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       13 Jul 092
  Voorspeld   14 Jul-16 Jul  090/085/080
  90 Day Mean        13 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 12 Jul  017/048
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  020/030
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  015/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 14 Jul tot 16 Jul
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief25%40%40%
Kleine stormcondities15%20%20%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities05%10%10%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief30%50%50%
Kleine stormcondities20%30%30%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%15%15%

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