Het archief bekijken van zaterdag 24 september 2011

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2011 Sep 24 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

SDF Nummer 267 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 24 Sep 2011

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1302 (N12E47) produced a X1/2b flare at 24/0940Z, a M7 long duration x-ray flare at 24/1320Z, and a M5 x-ray flare at 24/2036Z. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in association with the first two of these events. The second CME, which was must faster, appears to overtake the first, and has a partial halo signature from the LASCO/Earth perspective. Estimate speeds of the CME range between 1900 - 2600 km/s. Region 1302 produced three other flares greater than M1 during the period. Region 1295 (N26W84) produced a M3 x-ray flare at 24/1725Z. Another large sunspot is beginning to emerge around the East limb of the disk near N15.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to be high to very high for the next 3 days (25-27 September) due to the activity produced by Region 1302.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 23-2100Z tot 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 23/2255Z, peaked at 12 pfu during the day, and remains above threshold at the time of this report. The noon F10 solar flux was observed at 190, but is believed to be enhanced by the flares which occurred today.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on day 1 (25 September) due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Conditions are forecast to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels with the chance for a major storm starting late on day 1 through midday on day 2 (26 September) due to the anticipated partial impact from the CME from earlier today. Conditions are forecast to carry over to day 3 (27 September) with mostly unsettled to active periods expected. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain above the 10 pfu threshold for days 1 and 2, before decreasing on day 3.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 25 Sep tot 27 Sep
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X40%40%40%
Proton99%99%80%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       24 Sep 190
  Voorspeld   25 Sep-27 Sep  160/160/160
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 107
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 23 Sep  002/003
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  005/005
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  010/010-025/030-012/012
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 25 Sep tot 27 Sep
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief40%10%10%
Kleine stormcondities30%50%40%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%30%20%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief40%10%10%
Kleine stormcondities30%60%60%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities01%30%30%

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