Het archief bekijken van zondag 25 september 2011

Activiteitenrapport

Rapport van de zonne- en geofysische activiteit van 2011 Sep 25 2235 UTC
Opgemaakt door de NOAA © SWPC en verwerkt door Poollicht.be

USAF/NOAA rapport van de zonneactiviteit en geofysische activiteit

::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF Nummer 268 gepubliceerd omstreeks 2200Z op 25 Sep 2011

IA. Analyse van de actieve zonneregio's en zonneactiviteit van 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Regions 1302 (N12E36) and 1303 (S28W79) each produced three M-class flares. The largest was an M7/2N at 25/0450Z. A partial halo CME was observed at 24/1936Z in LASCO C2 imagery which was likely associated with the M3 flare from Region 1302 that occurred at 24/1921Z. The event had an associated Type II (1369 km/s) and an approximate plane of sky speed of 800 km/s using LASCO C3 imagery. The majority of the ejecta was directed off the North East limb. Two more CMEs were observed at 25/0236Z and 25/0312Z off the Southwest limb in LASCO C2 imagery, however, they are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Voorspelling zonneactiviteit
Solar activity is expected to continue at high levels with a chance for isolated X-class flares from Region 1302.
IIA. Samenvatting geofysische activiteit 24-2100Z tot 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. At approximately 25/1106Z, the IMF Bt increased from 5 nT to 10 nT while the field density increased to around 7 p/cc at the ACE spacecraft. A sudden impulse (14 nT) was observed in the Boulder magnetometer at 25/1151Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 23/2255Z, reached a peak of 27.3 PFUs at 25/2030Z, and continues to remain above the 10 PFU threshold.
IIB. Voorspelling geofysische activiteit
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions with major storm periods possible at high latitudes on day 1 (26 September) due to activity from the CME associated with the M7 flare that occurred at 24/1320Z. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on days 2-3 (27-28 September) due to continued activity from the CME as well as a possible glancing blow from a weak CME on day 3. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to remain above threshold for the next three days.
III. Kans zonnevlammen van 26 Sep tot 28 Sep
Klasse M80%80%80%
Klasse X40%40%40%
Proton99%99%80%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Geobserveerd       25 Sep 169
  Voorspeld   26 Sep-28 Sep  170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 108
V. Geomagnetische A index
  Geobserveerd Afr/Ap 24 Sep  003/004
  Verwacht     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  007/007
  Voorspeld    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  025/030-012/012-008/015
VI. Kansen geomagnetische activiteit van 26 Sep tot 28 Sep
A. Gemiddelde breedtegraad
Actief45%30%15%
Kleine stormcondities20%15%05%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities10%05%01%
B. Hoge breedtegraad
Actief45%30%35%
Kleine stormcondities25%15%15%
Zware-ernstige stormcondities15%05%05%

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