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Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Mar 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Mar 2024	167	008
20 Mar 2024	164	017
21 Mar 2024	165	007

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity was moderate with two M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3615 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 22) produced both of those flares, first the M6 yesterday at 19:19 UTC and then the M1 today at 02:29 UTC. NOAA AR 3614 (magnetic type Beta, Catania sunspot group 22), 3615, and 3616 (magnetic type Beta, Catania sunspot group 19) produced C5 flares during the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours more M-class flaring activity is expected particularly from NOAA AR 3614 and 3615, with a chance of an X-class flare.

Coronale massa uitstoten

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Zonnewind

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at yesterday 19:00 UTC. The disturbance could be a component from the eruption of 15 Mar 02:12 UTC that took place at the western solar limb. The SW speed increased from 300 to 400 km/s as a result of the arrival, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) raised from 2 to 11 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -11 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun until the arrival of the CME and then fluctuated between the two directions. The effects of the CME have now subsided, however, another CME arrival is expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetisme

During the last 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3) as a result of the arrival of a weak Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) yesterday 19:00 UTC. In the next 24 hours, they are expected to remain at unsettled levels and possibly increase to active or minor storm levels as another CME is expected to arrive.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so for the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is also a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 136, gebaseerd op 13 stations.

Zon indexen voor 18 Mar 2024

Wolfgetal Catania	147
10cm zonneflux	177
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	005
Geschatte Ap	007
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal	125 - Gebaseerd op 27 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

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