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Dagelijks bulletin over zonne- en geomagnetische activiteit van het SIDC

Datum verslag: 2024 Mar 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Prognose

Zonnevlammen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Proton Flux monitor

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
20 Mar 2024167008
21 Mar 2024162008
22 Mar 2024158006

Zonnevlekkengebieden en zonnevlammen

Solar flaring activity was high with an M7 flare detected today at 07:36 UTC. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3615 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 22) produced both the M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours, including an M2 yesterday at 23:27 UTC. NOAA AR 3616 (magnetic type Beta, Catania sunspot group 19) produced a C5 flare in the past 24 hours, but has declined since. Moderate to high flaring activity is expected to be produced by NOAA AR 3615 in the next 24 hours, with a change of an X-class flare.

Coronale massa uitstoten

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME launched yesterday at 02:48 UTC can been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images. It is estimated to be a back-sided event and hence not geo- effective.

Zonnewind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 420 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between being directed away and towards the Sun in the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are likely to be affected by the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetisme

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2- and K BEL 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. In the next 24 hours, they are likely to increase to unsettled or possibly to active levels as a CME is expected to arrive.

Proton flux niveaus

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so for the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is also a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Elektronenfluxen in geostationaire baan

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Het geschatte internationale zonnevlekkengetal (ISN) van vandaag: 128, gebaseerd op 13 stations.

Zon indexen voor 19 Mar 2024

Wolfgetal Catania168
10cm zonneflux169
AK Chambon La Forêt011
AK Wingst008
Geschatte Ap010
Geschat internationaal zonnevlekkengetal134 - Gebaseerd op 19 stations

Overzicht opvallende gebeurtenissen

DagStartMaxEindeLocatieSterkteOP10cmCatania/NOAASoorten radio-uitbarstingen
19231723272332S16E57M2.1SN22/3615
20072307360747S10E51M7.43B22/3615

Aangeboden door het Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verwerkt door SpaceWeatherLive

Alle tijden in UTC

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