Diskussion av prognoserat rymdväder

Datum av rapporten: 2025 Dec 15 1230 UTC
Skapad av NOAA SWPC och bearbetad av SWL

Solaktivitet

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity observed. Region 4307 (S15W41, Dao/beta) continued a trend of growth and was the main contributor of C-flare activity this period. A few new spots emerged just north of Region 4308 (N09E24, Cao/beta), but it is not clear if these spots are part of 4308 or a separate region. The remaining regions were mostly stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Prognos

There is a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity over 15-17 Dec.

Energirika partiklar

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period.

Prognos

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 17 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 15-17 Dec.

Solvind

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

Solar wind parameters suggested the waning influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached 7 nT, and the Bz component ranged between +/-4 nT. Wind speeds slowly decreased throughout the period from a peak of ~575 km/s to ~450 km/s. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.

Prognos

Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to subside on 15 Dec, with ambient solar wind conditions expected to prevail on 16 Dec. The solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced on 17 Dec due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

Sammanfattning av de senaste 24 timmarna

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under waning negative polarity CH HSS influences.

Prognos

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over 15-16 Dec as any remnant negative polarity CH HSS influences subside, and ambient solar wind conditions prevail. Periods of active conditions are expected on 17 Dec due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS.