Prognos för nästkommande 3 dagar

Datum av rapporten: 2026 Apr 03 1230 UTC
Skapad av NOAA SWPC och bearbetad av SWL

Observerad geomagnetisk aktivitet och prognos

Det högsta observerade Kp-värdet under de senaste 24 timmarna var 6 (NOAA-skalan G2).

Det högsta prognoserade Kp-värdet för 03 Apr-05 Apr 2026 är 6 (.00NOAA-skalan G2).

Översikt av Kp-index

             Apr 03       Apr 04       Apr 05
00-03UT       4.00         5.67 (G2)    3.67     
03-06UT       3.67         6.00 (G2)    4.67 (G1)
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    5.67 (G2)    3.67     
09-12UT       4.00         4.67 (G1)    3.00     
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    2.67     
15-18UT       3.67         4.00         2.67     
18-21UT       3.67         3.67         1.67     
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    3.67         2.67     

Motivering

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 03 Apr, with periods of G2 (Moderate) storming likely, driven by ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible initial arrival of the 01 Apr CME. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming is likely on 04 Apr, with a chance for G3 (Strong) storms due to continued -CH HSS influences and the anticipated passage of the 01 Apr CME early in the UTC day. Active conditions are expected on 05 Apr as negative polarity CH HSS influences wane and any remnant CME enhancements subside.

Observerad solaktivitet och prognos

Proton-fluxen som observerats de sista 24 timmarna av GOES-18, var under stormnivå (S-klass)

Protonstormsprognos för 03 Apr-05 Apr 2026

              Apr 03  Apr 04  Apr 05
S1 eller större   50%     50%     25%

Motivering

There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels on 03-05 Apr.

Radiostörningar och prognos

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 02 2026 1815 UTC.

Radiostörningsprognos för 03 Apr-05 Apr 2026

              Apr 03        Apr 04        Apr 05
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 eller större   25%           25%           25%

Motivering

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares, over 03-05 Apr driven primarily by the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405, and 4409.