Previsió meteorològica espacial - Discussió

Emès: 2025 Dec 16 0030 UTC
Elaborat pel Departament de Comerç dels EUA, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activitat solar

Resum de 24 h

Solar activity was at low levels. Only low level C-class flares were observed. Slight growth and consolidation occurred in Region 4307 (S15W48, Dao/beta). Region 4308 (N07E17, Cso/beta) was in decay. New spots developed near N01W22 and were numbered as 4310 (N01W25, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery

Previsió

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 16-18 Dec.

Partícules energètiques

Resum de 24 h

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period.

Previsió

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 18 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 16-18 Dec.

Vent solar

Resum de 24 h

Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced. Solar wind speed ranged from 411-508 km/s. Towards the end of the reporting period, the total magnetic field (Bt) increased from 4 nT to 13 nT, while the Bz (north-south) component was between +8/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun).

Previsió

Solar wind parameters are likely going to be mildly enhanced through early on 16 Dec. An enhancement in the solar wind is expected on 17-18 Dec with the onset of a trans-equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds near 600 km/s is likely based on WSA/ENLIL guidance.

Geoespai

Resum de 24 h

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Previsió

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Dec. On 17-18 Dec, unsettled to active levels are expected, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 18 Dec, due to the onset of the negative polarity CH HSS.