Previsió meteorològica espacial - Discussió

Emès: 2026 Apr 02 0030 UTC
Elaborat pel Departament de Comerç dels EUA, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center i processat per SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activitat solar

Resum de 24 h

Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares produced by Regions 4401 (N25W70, Hax/alpha), 4405 (S27E05, Eac/beta-gamma) and 4409 (N02E24, Dri/beta). There were 9 numbered active regions on the solar disk, with the 4409 showing the most significant growth during the period and producing the largest flares (C8.1 at 01/1958 UTC and C5.3 at 01/1348 UTC). A new region emerged around 01/0930 UTC near N10W67 but it was not numbered yet. Multiple filaments erupted during the day producing CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery, but their propagation modeling did not suggest impacts to Earth. The exceptions are the ejecta first observed at GONG H-alpha images at 01/1754 UTC and later at SUVI images near 01/1800 UTC (modeling is ongoing), and the eruption associated with the C8.1 flare from 4409. Analysis of this last CME will be conducted as additional coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Previsió

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) levels, with slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares through 04 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4404, 4405 and 4409.

Partícules energètiques

Resum de 24 h

Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,587 pfu at 01/1345 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels during the period.

Previsió

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be reach high levels on 02 and 04 Apr, with a brief return to moderate to normal levels on 03 Apr. There is a slight and decreasing chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 04 Apr.

Vent solar

Resum de 24 h

Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels until a IP shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 01/1130 UTC indicating the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Mar. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 400 km/s to near 500 km/s during the onset of the transient, returning to ~425 km/s by the end of the UT day. Total field increased to a peak of 16 nT at 01/1154 UTC (near the onset of the IP). Bz oscillated around zero most of the day, reaching as far south as -10 nT at 01/1227 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly positive until about 01/2000 UTC, when it became mostly negative until the end of the period.

Previsió

Further solar wind disturbances are anticipated around midday on 02 Apr as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. HSS activity is expected to persist into 03 Apr and be slightly enhanced on the 04 Apr, due to a contribution of another negative polarity CH HSS located in the northern solar hemisphere.

Geoespai

Resum de 24 h

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Previsió

The geomagnetic field is likely to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming levels on 02 Apr with possible G2 (Moderate) isolated periods, as the CME disturbances waning and the anticipated negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03-04 Apr.