Space Weather Forecast - Debate

Emitido: 2026 Jun 23 0030 UTC
Preparado por el U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Actividad solar

Resumen 24 hr

Solar activity returned to low levels, with the largest flare of the period being a C1.5 at 22/0456 UTC from just behind the SE limb. Due to decreased foreshortening effects, old Region 4473 was deemed to be two separate groups and was split: Region 4473 (S09E40, Dai/beta-gamma), the western-most group that produced the M6.8 at 21/1929 UTC, and Region 4475 (S09E51, Cao/beta-gamma), the eastern-most group. Regions 4472 (S14E28, Dao/beta)exhibited minor growth. Several eruptions were seen over 20-21 Jun associated with activity from Regions 4472 and 4473, such as the M6.8. Analysis of the coronagraph imagery suggests each eruption is quite slow (~250 km/s or less); however modeling of them all together indicates that they may interact with each other and an anticipated CIR, resulting in possible minor glancing blows to Earth late on 24 Jun and potentially 28 Jun.

Predicción

Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on 23-25 Jun, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares due primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473 and a region seen in Solar Orbiter data about to rotate onto the eastern limb.

Partículas Energéticas

Resumen 24 hr

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Predicción

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 23-25 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Jun.

Viento Solar

Resumen 24 hr

Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period, with total magnetic field strength (Bt) at or below 6 nT, no significant periods of southward Bz, phi largely positive, and solar wind speeds averaging 350 km/s. At 22/1815 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing produced a bump in Bt, peaking at 7 nT, but no appreciable change in other solar wind parameters.

Predicción

Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 23 Jun. Enhanced conditions are expected 24-25 Jun due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and a potential minor glancing blow from a CME that left the Sun on 20 Jun.

Geoespacio

Resumen 24 hr

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Predicción

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels through 23 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely 24-25 Jun due to the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS and glancing blow influences.